Marchilena's Madness: Heisman history says bet on Texas' McCoy for 2009 winner

Friday, September 4, 2009

If you enjoyed the 2008 college football season, well, you're in for a treat in 2009.

The season kicks off Thursday night with a handful of games - highlighted by No. 16 Oregon at No. 14 Boise State - and going in, there's not much of a difference among the favorites from a year ago.

Florida, the defending BCS winner, is the top team in both the USA Today and Associated Press polls, and the Gators received all but two first-place votes in the later of the two. In order, Texas, Oklahoma, Southern Cal, Alabama, Ohio State and Virginia Tech round out the top seven in both polls.

At the end of last year, both polls had Florida, USC, Texas, Oklahoma and Alabama, in various order, at the top of the list.

All three Heisman Trophy finalists from 2008 are back as well. Tim Tebow of Florida and Sam Bradford of Oklahoma have won the last two, both as sophomores, and Colt McCoy of Texas has a good a shot as either of them at winning this year.

And that could be where this college football season differs from not only last year, but every year that's come before. Well, except for one.

That would be 1975. NBC premiered a show named Wheel of Fortune in January and another in October called Saturday Night Live. President Ford posthumously pardoned Robert E. Lee and survived two assassination attempts. Bill Gates founded Microsoft.

And Archie Griffin, running back from Ohio State, became the only college football player to win the Heisman Trophy a second time.

The award has been given out 74 times, with 73 winners. It wasn't until Army's Doc Blanchard took the trophy in 1945 that a junior won the Heisman. As a senior, Blanchard was fourth in voting as his teammate, Glenn Davis, took the trophy.

In all, 18 players have won the Heisman and had at least a year of eligibility left to try to add another. Seven of them – Herschel Walker, Barry Sanders, Andre Ware, Desmond Howard, Rashaan Salaam, Charles Woodson and Reggie Bush – left early for the NFL.

Of the remaining 10, Griffin is the only one to win twice and Oklahoma's Bill Sims (who won in 1978) is the only returning winner to finish second the next year. Doak Walker (1948 winner), Ty Detmer (1991), Jason White (2003), Matt Leinart (2004) and Tebow all came in third the year following their Heisman Trophy season. The final two players – Vic Janowicz (1950) and Roger Staubach (1963) – didn't even make the top 10 in voting.

What does it all mean? That, based on the history of Heisman Trophy voting, McCoy is going to be your 2009 winner.

More than any other award in any other sport, college or pro, Heisman voters stick to a certain type of player.

With few exceptions, Heisman winners have been quarterbacks or running backs who are usually seniors and play on highly successful teams.

And for the first 40 years, including when Griffin won his first trophy in 1974, only five juniors finished first. Before Tebow in 2007, only five sophomores had even come in as high second – Walker (1981), Marshall Faulk (1992), Rex Grossman (2001), Larry Fitzgerald (2003) and Darren McFadden (2006).

While the voters have recently looked past a player's age, they've stuck on a player's position – Bush is the only running back to win in the last 10 years – and even more so on the number of times a player actually wins.

As for how good a player's team is, Texas will have to likely go through both Oklahoma and Florida if it wants to win a national title.

There will be other players who get into the race – California's Jahvid Best, Mississippi's Jevan Snead and Ohio State's Terrelle Pryor are a few – and one of them could leap ahead of McCoy, Tebow and Bradford. But barring something unforeseen, like an injury, its not likely to happen.

So unless the Heisman voters completely lose their minds and give the trophy to Tebow or Bradford, Colt McCoy will be the 2009 winner.

Joe Marchilena can be reached at 594-6448 or jmarchilena@
 nashuatelegraph.com.