All is not lost for Patriots

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Stop right there, you woe-begotten Patriots fans.

Take a step away from the ledge. You’ll want to be around for what I’m about to say.

All is not lost for the 2009 Patriots.

Yes, Monday night’s loss to the New Orleans Saints was embarrassing. I hate using that word because, honestly, it looked worse than that. The Saints might as well have pantsed the Patriots on national television, and that is beyond embarrassing. Just ask Devin Hester.

New Orleans looked like the best team in the NFL, especially the offense. The Saints just might be, but with the way the Patriots secondary played, just about any team would have looked that good.

But it was one game, a game on the road in front of a home crowd that was watching its team play in perhaps the biggest home game in franchise history. OK, maybe that’s a lot of hyperbole, but no matter what the standings tell you, that was a big game for the Saints and their collective psyche as it was for the Patriots.

Right now, that New Orleans locker room is feeling pretty good about a complete dismantling of what is still thought of as the premier franchise in the league, despite the fact is hasn’t won a Super Bowl in five seasons.

As for this year, there are a lot of flaws. An inability to win games on the road. A greatly inexperienced defense that is suspiciously lacking in playmakers. And of course there’s the offense that features Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker and . . . well there’s the problem.

Combine that with Bill Belichick’s worst season as a coach since his infamous stint with the Cleveland Browns, and that’s a recipe for nothing better than an 8-8 season.

Or at least it would be in the old NFL. The landscape of the league has changed so much in just the last five years that it only takes a lot of good players, or a handful of great ones, to take care of business in the playoffs. And let’s be realistic, the Patriots are going to make the playoffs. Sure they might lose at Miami this week and they could lose at Houston to finish the regular season, but even that would likely mean a 10-6 record. And unless the Dolphins or the Jets go on a five-game winning streak, that means New England wins the AFC East and is at worst the No. 4 seed when the playoffs start.

While a lot of people will tell you that having to play three games just to get to the Super Bowl is a daunting task – and it is – it’s not impossible. Just look at the participants of the last four championship games.

In 2005, Pittsburgh was the sixth seed and won three games on the road – against the top three seeds, no less – and beat the top seed from the NFC in the Super Bowl. In 2006, Indianapolis won three games, one at No. 2 Baltimore, and then won the Super Bowl. In 2007, the Giants were the fifth seed and won three road playoff games and . . . well, you’re already hurting, so I’ll spare you.

Last year, the Arizona Cardinals – yes the Cardinals, who lost at Foxborough by 40 points in December – won three playoff games, two of which were over teams they’d lost to in the regular season to get to the big game. And after 54 minutes, Arizona had the lead in the Super Bowl.

Also of note was that the Cardinals went 3-5 on the road last year, including a 21-point loss at the Jets, a 28-point loss at the Eagles and that loss in New England.

No matter which Wild Card team ends up playing at Foxborough in the first round, I wouldn’t bet against the Patriots, who by the way, haven’t lost a playoff game at home since a 31-14 loss to the Houston Oilers on Dec. 31, 1978.

That would mean a division-round game at either Indianapolis, Cincinnati or San Diego. All three of those teams, just like the Patriots, have their flaws. All three of those teams, including the undefeated Colts, are beatable.

A win there means an AFC Championship game at one of those other three teams, or at home if its against the fifth or sixth seed.

It’s not likely that things will play out that way. Again, this is a very flawed Patriots team and there is no quick fix at this point of the season. And this team hasn’t given anyone a reason to believe it can win a big game away from home.

But it can certainly happen.

Are the Patriots the favorite? Absolutely not. There’s probably at least six teams that have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl right now.

Are the Patriots a contender? Well, if they make it, they certainly have a better chance in the postseason than they did in 2008.

Joe Marchilena can be reached at 594-6448 or jmarchilena@ nashuatelegraph.com.